Co-Founder Scott Bilter on NeuGroup’s Strategic Finance Lab | AtlasFX
With interest rates shifting, trade policy in flux and the US dollar posting one of its worst first-half performances in decades, managing FX risk is more complicated-and more critical-than ever. In this environment, the tools treasury teams use to measure and hedge their exposures can make the difference between stable earnings and unexpected losses.
In a recent episode of Strategic Finance Lab, AtlasFX Co-Founder and CFO Scott Bilter joined NeuGroup’s Antony Michels for a timely conversation about FX volatility, forecasting challenges and the evolving role of technology in corporate risk management. Drawing on his background in treasury and FP&A at Hewlett-Packard, where AtlasFX was first conceived, Scott offers a unique perspective. He’s lived the pain of managing global currency risk with nothing but spreadsheets-and built a platform to solve it.
In the conversation, Scott shares hard-earned insights on navigating volatility, improving exposure forecasts and why now is the time to rethink your FX risk strategy.
The FX tide is out-and the gaps are showing
As market swings intensify, companies are feeling the pain of weak processes and poor forecasting. “Sometimes you can get away with not having a great process when there’s not that much volatility to call you out on it,” Scott said. “I’m often reminded of the great Warren Buffett quote: ‘You don’t know who’s been swimming naked until the tide goes out.’ Well, I’d say the tide has gone out.”
While some companies are holding steady, others are scrambling to explain large variances in their quarterly results. And those without strong hedging strategies are being forced to revisit everything-from hedge percentages to program design and exposure forecasting.
Why exposure forecasting is tailor-made for AI
One of the biggest challenges in FX risk management is exposure forecasting. Many companies rely on legacy processes-what Scott calls “an army of spreadsheets”-that are manual, inconsistent and vulnerable to errors.
That’s where AtlasFX AI comes in. Designed specifically for FX forecasting, the AI model analyzes historical data, identifies anomalies and accounts for variables like intercompany flows and economic indicators. It’s already proven its value: one multinational reduced forecast errors by $3.5 million per month and saved over 300 hours of manual work per quarter after adopting the model.
“They were spending hundreds of hours a quarter trying to forecast over 700 currency pairs, mostly driven by intercompany flows that nobody could forecast well,” Scott explained. “It ended up being a great use case for an AI model. We ran it in parallel with their manual process and the AI was just trouncing the manual one-time and time again, for many exposures.”
Built by practitioners, not generalists
Scott and his co-founders built the first version of AtlasFX while managing risk at HP, where their balance sheet hedging process revolved around a monster spreadsheet affectionately dubbed the “FX Beast.” Errors were frequent, deadlines were missed and forecasts were often unreliable.
One mistake-a missing negative sign-resulted in a large incorrect trade. “It ended up making us money, but it was a wake-up call,” Scott said. “We needed a better process, better data-everything.”
That firsthand experience became the blueprint for AtlasFX: a platform purpose-built for FX risk managers, with clean data at its core and automation that replaces, rather than adds to, manual effort.
European companies are playing catch-up
AtlasFX is also seeing a surge in interest from European multinationals, many of whom are now feeling the impact of underhedged USD revenue. According to Scott, “We’re seeing a lot more top-down directives like, ‘Hey, we’ve got to solve this, so let’s get a hedging program. What do we do?'” These companies are looking for tools that can scale with their needs-and give them more confidence heading into earnings calls.
Plan for anything, predict with confidence
Scott was quick to point out that AI isn’t about predicting currency direction-it’s about improving accuracy and preparedness. “Realize that you need to stress test things,” he said. “Put a shock through your plan and see what it does to your unhedged exposures over time. And then if you don’t like the results, that’s a good reason to tweak the hedging program.”
Ultimately, the goal is to free up treasury teams to focus on more strategic work, without sacrificing accuracy or oversight. “We’re not taking the human out of the loop,” Scott said. “But we are taking a lot of the pain out of the process.”
Want to see the results for yourself? Explore our case studies to learn how companies like Essity, Cognizant and Takeda have modernized their FX programs with AtlasFX.
